Friday, March 04,
2005
posted by Bill Clinton at
7:43 AM
I can't
sleep
I
can’t sleep. I took two
sleeping pills. They
didn’t work. I can’t
take any more, because
I’m also using heart
medicine. I tried
playing internet poker,
but I can’t focus. Right
now there is nothing I
can do. I have to wait
till after the speech,
which is at about lunch
time here on the West
coast. After that I have
the meeting with the
former police officer.
There is something I
wanted to say a long
time ago, but I didn’t
have the time, because
of my visit to Asia.
I would like to offer my
deepest condolences to
the family of my close
friend and former prime
minister of Lebanon,
Rafiq Hariri. His death
was a shock to me. I was
horrified. I know
exactly who did it and
why. More about that
later.
I called his family to
tell them how shocked I
was. I wanted to be
present at the funeral,
but the secret service
vetoed that idea. It
wasn’t safe, especially
not with Hezbollah still
armed to the teeth.
Mr. Hariri, lovingly
called Mr. Lebanon by
his fellow countrymen,
was the driving force
behind the
reconstruction of
Lebanon after the civil
war. Lately he was also
the driving force behind
the movement to ask the
Syrian government to
pull its soldiers and
secret service agents
out of Lebanon.
That’s the reason the
Syrians killed him. If
Syria has to pull out of
Lebanon, it will be
pretty much encircled by
enemy states. NATO
member Turkey to the
north, American troops
in Iraq to the East,
pro-American Jordan to
the south (By the way
Syria is occupying a
large amount of
Jordanian land, which
King Abdullah wants
back) and Israel to the
south west. The Syrian government
killed Rafiq Hariri,
because they are afraid
that Lebanon would not
just be sovereign if
they pulled out their
forces, but might in
time be dominated by
another power, be it
Israel or the US, which
is more likely. Another reason is
strategic depth. The
capital of Syria is just
a few miles from the
border of Lebanon. And
also just a few miles
away from the Israeli
occupied Golan Heights.
Which is probably the
reason Israel chose to
occupy the Golan
Heights. Standing on the
mountains of the Golan
Heights you can see
Damascus in the
distance. The Syrians
know this. It’s a great
deterrent against any
Syrian adventurism.
This is the reason the
Syrian government always
uses the Hezbollah, a
Lebanese group to attack
Israel instead of
attacking Israel itself.
Aside from a national
defense dimension there
is also the economic
dimension. Syria has a
hybrid half communist,
half capitalist economic
system. Syria is
bankrupt and has been
ever since the end of
the Soviet Union.
Without the economic
power of Lebanon, Syria
will fall apart
economically.
Syria is also under
economic sanctions by
the US. Lebanon isn’t,
so products Syria needs
are bought by Lebanon,
then transferred to
Syria. There are also
one million Syrians
working in Lebanon. If
they have to go back to
Syria, Syria will see a
lot of social problems
with these unemployed
young men.
In other words, without
Lebanon, Syria will be
boxed in from a military
point of view and an
economic point of view.
Syria without Lebanon
would be weak and
exposed.
From the Syrian’s point
of view Rafiq Hariri had
to die, because he
wanted them to leave.
And he as a billionaire
had the clout to gather
international support
for this idea. He was
the one who asked the US
and France to support
United Nations Security
Council Resolution 1559,
which calls upon Syria
to leave Lebanon.
Some US commentators say
the Hariri murder might
have been organized by
Syria’s old guard
without the knowledge of
Syria’s young,
inexperienced president
Bashar Assad. This is an
old myth dictators
create to deflect
responsibility.
Go back into history and
you will see texts in
old Roman books saying,
the emperor had raised
taxes for instance and
the population, who
didn’t want or dare
attack the emperor for
his mistake, they would
say the emperor’s
underlings had made the
mistake without the
emperor knowing.
I read books in which
Germans, whose family
members had been hauled
off to concentration
camps by the Nazi’s,
said “If only Herr
Hitler knew about this
situation, he’d do
something about it”.
Well Herr Hitler knew
about it and had
actually ordered it.
It’s an old trick. The
dictator can make
mistakes and deflects
taking responsibility by
giving the impression he
isn’t his own man and
the population can
criticize the dictator’s
policies without
criticizing him
personally. Bashar Assad ordered the
death of Rafiq Hariri.
Bashar Assad is in
control of Syria.
People in the media
should stop making up
infantile excuses by
saying the real power
behind Bashar Assad
killed Hariri. Assad is
the power.
There are also people,
who think you need to
give Bashar Assad
incentives to behave
more responsibly, to
make him stop supporting
terrorists in Lebanon
and Israel. This is
nonsense. It took me
almost eight years to
understand that our way
of thinking is not their
way of thinking. Their
way, I mean a country’s
dictator’s way of
thinking.
A dictator wants to stay
in power. That’s all. A
dictator doesn’t care
about his population,
war, peace. He only
wants to stay in power.
Everything else is
negotiable.
You have to understand
the Syrian tyranny.
Syria’s president Bashar
Assad belongs to a
minority religious sect
called the Alawis, a
sub-group of Islam. The
top government and army
officials belong to the
same sect, which only 10
percent of Syria belongs
to. In other words 10
percent of the
population is lording
over the 80 percent of
Syrians, who are Sunni
Muslims.
Syria can not be a
normal country, because
that would mean, the
minority Alawis giving
up power to the vast
majority of Sunnis. This
is the reason, why Syria
has to be always in a
state of turmoil if
Bashar Assad and his
cronies want to stay in
power.
As long as there is an
external enemy, like
Israel occupying the
Golan Heights, as long
as there is Turkey
“occupying” according to
Syria the province of
Hatay, the Biblical
Antioch, there are
external enemies, which
focus the majority
populations’ attention
on these external
enemies.
Were these external
enemies to disappear,
the majority would have
the time to consider
their own plight. That
is a dictator’s worst
nightmare, because
thinking about a problem
and thinking about ways
to solve the problem are
very closely connected.
This is the reason a
minority government like
Bashar Assad’s Syrian
dictatorship needs chaos
and turmoil to exist. It
doesn’t want peace with
its neighbors. It
doesn’t want its people
to be prosperous and
content and have time to
think about their
situation.
The only way to stop
Syria from being a
constant threat and stop
them from spreading
chaos is to topple the
minority government of
Bashar Assad and let the
majority of Syrians
rule.
President Bush did this
in Iraq and now that the
majority Shia are in
power, Iraq is looking
inwards, trying to make
the lives of its people
better. That is what
democracies do, they
look inward instead of
threatening their
neighbors, the United
States or Israel or the
oil supply and with that
the world economy.
Majority rule means
peace. Minority rule,
like Bashar Assad’s
dictatorship means
chaos, terrorism and
war.
Friday,
March 25, 2005
posted by Bill Clinton at
12:03 PM
Rafiq Hariri and Lebanon
I read the
newspapers this morning over two
cups of coffee. I’m allowed to drink
coffee again. I’m happy about that.
The most interesting articles were
the ones dealing with the UN report
pertaining to the international
investigation into the murder of
Rafiq Hariri. The UN report does not
assign blame to either the Lebanese
or the Syrian governments.
It does blame the Lebanese
government and the Syrian
intelligence forces for an
atmosphere of violence and hate and
the lack of law and order in
Lebanon. It also says the Lebanese
government didn’t do a good job
investigating the murder and there
should be an international
investigation. It also clearly says
thatBashar Assad, during a meeting
threatened to harm Rafiq Hariri and
Druze leader Walid Jumblatt if they
stood in his way.
I agree with this report. I’m
certain Bashar Assad ordered the
assassination of Rafiq Hariri, but
in international affairs you can’t
do anything without proof. I’m
certain the international
investigation will find proof
linking Bashar Assad to the murder
of my friend Rafiq Hariri.
The reason I’m so confident is the
fact that it took the FBI years to
find the culprits, who had blown up
the plane over Lockerbie, Scotland,
but they found them and linked them
to the Libyan government. And when
the investigation succeeds, there
will be hell to pay for Assad.
He probably thought the United
States wouldn’t care about the death
of an Arab politician. But
Rafiq
Hariri isn’t just some politician
and Lebanon isn’t just some country
in the Arab world. Rafiq Hariri had many friends all
over the world. I’m proud to say he
considered me a friend. I talked to
him ten days before his
assassination. I was later debriefed
by a few national security agents,
who were interested in this
conversation. Bashar Assad made the mistake of
thinking we, Americans didn’t care
about Lebanon. We do and the reason
for that is pretty much the same as
the reason most Americans like
Israel. Lebanon is a democratic and
pluralistic society. What’s more
there are hundreds of thousands of
Lebanese Americans living in the
United States. Most Americans have
neighbors, who descend from
families, who came from Lebanon.
For instance, one of the most
respected journalists in Washington,
Helen Thomas has Lebanese ancestry.
Same goes for Senator Edward
Kennedy’s wife. Lebanese Americans
are a very successful and respected
group in our society. And for that
matter in the Democratic Party.
Even France, whose president Chirac
was a friend and business partner of
Rafiq Hariri has made it clear this
situation has to be dealt with.
The international community does not
take it lightly when a president
murders a politician of another
country. I have no idea what Bashar
Assad was thinking, when he gave the
order to kill my friend, but one
thing I know for certain, murdering
foreign politicians in a manner
reminiscent of Michael Corleone in
the Godfather will not stand. He has
lost any respect any foreign head of
state had for him.
Finally, Bashar Assad doesn’t seem
to understand how serious this
administration is about dealing with
rogue states and state sponsors of
terrorism. Let me clarify this.
Syria is not the objective, it’s a
barrier on the road to Iran. The Syrian president has made three
mistakes in one years.One, he
appointed Emile Lahoud president of
Lebanon for another three years
against the will of the vast
majority of Lebanese and in spite of
the Lebanese constitution. Two, he
murdered Rafiq Hariri.Three, he
allied himself with Iran.
The United States can not allow Iran
to have nuclear bombs. We know the
ayatollahs in Tehran want them and
will do anything to get them. The
Bush administration is intent on
stopping them.
There are two ways to stop them.
One, we destroy their nuclear
facilities or two we bring down the
regime, which wants them. Regime
change in Iran isn’t easy.
Iran is a big country, with a lot of
money, because of its oil and gas
reserves and has a population of
about seventy million people, most
of them young and of military age.
Invading Iran is out of the
question. Bombing Iran is possible,
but won’t have the intended result.
The only avenue left is to mortally
wound the regime in Iran by cutting
off its tentacles.
The first one is Hizballah in
Lebanon, the second one is the
Syrian regime.
I saw an interesting article in a
newspaper, when I was in the
hospital. It said someone had
written pro- Sistani words on a wall
in the Hizballah dominated Bekaa
Valley. The reason I thought this
was interesting is simple. Grand
Ayatollah Sistani is the leader of
the Shia in Iraq. He is a direct
rival of the ayatollahs in Iran, who
claim they are the leaders of all
Shia in the world.
The Shia religion is structured in
the same fashion as Catholicism.
There is a pope and there are lower
ranking priests. The leader of Iran
Khamenei considers himself the
“pope” of all Shia, including the
ones in Iraq, but also the ones in
Lebanon.
This is by the way the reason why
the ayatollahs in Iran are
interested in helping Hizballah.
They are asserting their dominance
as leaders of the Shia faith.
Their only rival for the title of
“pope” is grand ayatollah Sistani of
Iraq. His brand of Shia Islam is
more moderate and democratic than
the brand the Iranians are trying to
sell to the Shia world. If we want
to undermine the ayatollahs in Iran,
we must support Sistani in Iraq and
we must do everything possible to
promote Najaf as the real base of
Shia Islam. Now that Sistani seems
to be making inroads in the Bekaa
Valley, this might end the pro-
Iranian Hizballah’s stranglehold on
the Shia in Lebanon.
Hizballah lost its reason to exist
after Israel pulled out of Lebanon.
Hizballah knows this. The Shia in
Lebanon want the same things as the
rest of the Lebanese, a good
education and jobs. Hizballah can’t
provide those things, so they will
never be as important as they used
to be. As they lose votes, so will
the Iranian ayatollahs lose
influence over the Shia in Lebanon.
Coming back to Syria, when
the
international investigation proves Bashar Assad was behind the murder
of Hariri,the UN will impose
sanctions on Syria. Syria, which is
a poor country with only about 15
million inhabitants will be hit
hard. If the sanctions don’t bring
down the government of Bashar Assad,
they will certainly cripple his grip
on power and undermine his influence
in the region and his capacity to
help the Iranians. This is a good thing for Lebanon. It
will calm down the situation in the
region, possibly leading to the
creation of a Palestinian state.
This would mean that the hundreds of
thousands of Palestinian refugees
living in Lebanon can go home. All in all, Bashar Assad made the
mistake of his life when he decided
to kill my friend.
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